I want to know the 因果 the majority players believe, if my research indicates the widely believed 因果 is actually not right or even wrong. I have an edge against the majority.
Ken Fisher gave out an example in his book about trade deficit number and stock performance, most ppl believe large trade deficit is a threat to stock market, but his research provides the opposite result.
My own example, in the research I have been doing about OVTI, many analysts argued that its fabless model have higher cost comparing with MU and other players who use their existing fully depreciated fab, is this true? sounds reasonable on paper. however my conclusion is quite opposite, in short term it is true. however in the long run, those image sensor maker running its own fab will suffer. The key here is "existing", free lunch in short term, as technology advanced, those fab will need to catch up, you either need to build and maintain new fabs with huge $$$$$ or suffer from lower quality and lesser technolgy.
Another interesting thing is, from MU's most recent report it indicates that they have more than one quarter inventory build-up in image sensor, they have to slow down or stop the production and deal with the inventory, then the fix cost of maintaining the fab suddenly works against them, free lunch becomes burning pain in the ass.