I have been thinking about this one after the ER/CC, some initial comments are here
The upside potential for this stock is they are GETTING another partnership deal, at this moment it really doesn't matter if it is as good as ROCHE/CellCept.
However the downside risk is really not about FAILING to get the deal until CellCept expires. (currently the market priced this one fully expecting it is not happening)
The real downside risk is actually the PhaseIII result on treating Lupus nephritis(they have done the last patient last dose in March) announcement, if this one fails, the current revenue of off-label usage of CellCept will diminish a lot. However I do think the chance of failing is low, and once the data is good and get approved, it can work as a nice upside potential.
So have to warn you guys about this issue.