Sunday, May 6, 2007

Couple Comments about ASPV

I have been thinking about this one after the ER/CC, some initial comments are here

The upside potential for this stock is they are GETTING another partnership deal, at this moment it really doesn't matter if it is as good as ROCHE/CellCept.

However the downside risk is really not about FAILING to get the deal until CellCept expires. (currently the market priced this one fully expecting it is not happening)

The real downside risk is actually the PhaseIII result on treating Lupus nephritis(they have done the last patient last dose in March) announcement, if this one fails, the current revenue of off-label usage of CellCept will diminish a lot. However I do think the chance of failing is low, and once the data is good and get approved, it can work as a nice upside potential.

So have to warn you guys about this issue.

3 comments:

Hans said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hans said...

我同意LUPUS失败的可能性很小,也同意如果真的失败会影响以后几年的收入,但想请教一个问题:
如果P3通过,几年以后PATENT过期,那这新药的价格会不会也一落千仗?
另外,据说这新药没有价格优势,估计带来的利润有限.

robin said...

yes, once the generic drug shows up
the price will drop, however it is not like ASPV will be killed overnight, those generic drug competitors stlll need to figure out a way to produce CellCept without infringing Roche's
manufacturing patent which will still in effect until 2013.

I am guessing the worst senario starting from second half of 2009, the revenue will drop due to competitor, and will completely disappear after 2013. and that is the worst senario.

if P3 passed, the market share will increase quite a lot (14% on LN treat ment--> 80% or so) so the revenue will still be good even at the presence of generic competitors.

据说这新药没有价格优势 it is the old drug CellCept, not new one.

The downside of the approval of P3 is, ASPV will do quite some marketing and sales for CellCept's new indication usage, might be a pain for them