Sunday, May 6, 2007

My long term holding portfolio


Those are my buy-holder recommendations on Investment-board@mitbbs on April 10th. As you can see, they are in 4 totally different industry sectors. That is how far I am willing to go at this moment as far as diversification is concerned.

I am going to track the monthly performance of those 4, assuming that the initial investing money is equally put into each and bought that day at open. The first track report is here
Just added to the right yahoo finance banner to compare with SP500

From my research those 4 have really low downside capital risk, however the upside potential of USG and URGI will not be as high as other picks I play such as MCZ, SIGA, ACUS etc. HNR will probably be a 2x bagger, and that's it. The only lottery kind of upside potential is in OVTI. If I am telling you it might be a 10 bagger two years down the road, you will probably laugh at me. However let's just wait and see what happens.

I would have added ASPV, however as I said it still has the clinical trial Phase III risk in the near future. No matter how low the probability of failing it seems, it is still a Phase III

I would also have added SIGA, however I just don't want to add too much volatility into the pick combo given that we already have a volatile one -OVTI- in it.

I would've probably added JMBA, if I sell any of those positions due to:
1 target reached
2. significant negative development happened.
I will buy JMBA if the price is in the acceptable range to replace that one.

I do have an exit target for HNR, and it will probably be the first to get out of my portfolio this summer.


Youdong said...

You mentioned MCZ in the post.
I like this tiny stock, which could be FORD two years ago

robin said...

As Hans pointed out about MCZ, they have cash flow issue, the fast increased Account receivable is a concern for last quarter, which can mean there are some channel stuffing happening, I will keep watching it, since I only have 1500 shares, will just hold and evaluate the incoming ER before I do any more accumulation.