Sunday, May 6, 2007

Buffett的启示

其实有Warren Buffett等一大票成功传奇投资者这样几十年如一日high return而且consistently beat market的生动例子在,“High Return associates with High Risk”是伪命题的观点就在明白不过了。正确的版本是

“Investments with expected high return are usually associated with high risk, however there are likely high return investment opportunities with low capital risk profile, however are almost always associated with high uncertainty" pls check my previous post

Buffett的成功还直接推翻了“Market总是有效的,所有information都被反映在股价变化上“的非常普遍misconception。正确的版本是

"Market通常是有效的,所有information在一定时间之后都会被反映在股价变化上,这个一定时间gap可能会短到1毫秒,也可能长到2-3年“

所以一个消息出来后,市场的第一反应并不一定是对的。

不要给我讲Buffett有你没有的东西,比如insider information,能直接把Business买下来好操作是我们散户不能比云云,看看他还是小角色的初期的成就,在American Express,Washington Post这样的投资妙笔,你也一样能行。强烈建议有空看看他这几十年给BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY shareholder的annual letters,特别是如果你能back engineering他早期投资决策背后的reasoning是学习的最好机会。

2 comments:

Zhi said...

I don't think Buffett's investing style fits you. By the way, he brought some railroad stocks a few weeks ago. He may get his reasons, but I just don't agree with him......This is why he's rich and I am not. :p

robin said...

I do think he has a lot wisdom to be learned from, I am certainly interested in how could he pick those winner out in the first place.