Some more picks to add to watchlist

After I disclosed my HCL watchlist, I got questions about other picks with uptrend better established, or with higher pps. In this post I am going to give picks like PLXS I have been talking about. Still only a watchlist not recommendation. I did the intial screening for you, you need to dig deeper to find out if you like them or not.

LRW
HERO
CFK
WIRE
JOYG

My Expanded Highly Controversial Loser(HCL) Watchlist

Besides the ones I keep mentioning, those are additional candidates, not recommendation at all, just watchlist, I need to do more research to have opinion about any of them.

Update:
I think since there are many newbies watching my list I'd better delete all the biopharm play and filer the price/share >5

the updated list looks like:

VIMC
EICU
JUPM
IKAN
ALDA
STMP
CTHR
KONG
RMIX
IMAX(*)
RVSB
WPL
BRNC(*)
HRAY
OPMR
NSSC
NTE
EPEX
ASPM
CRED(**)
PTC
FNF
RAIL
LONG(*)
WTI
IFN
HW
MRVL(*)

Note: I assure you there will be a lot "value trap", falling knifes keep falling in those candidates, don't ever think about catching the knife, just wait for bottom momentum or news/ER driven momentum.

Update2:
Using the same approach, I picked out winners(for now) HLEX, OVTI, PLXS, HITK, HTE from a large pool of candidates, so the key is to check its recent price movement, if the last month performance is very good say 10-15%+, put it into your closely watched list and do more retail FA research to identify the key issues, that is the way to filter out most of the "value trap" and only pick out the ones which have good potential and get yourself prepared for bottom momentum driven by new developments on key issues.

Update3:
Besides bottom momentum day trading and short term swing, this is actually a nice approach to screen turning around business for long term holding. Still you need to wait until uptrend established (track it for more than 3 months from bottom), and read its 10K/10Q especially the balance sheet carefully to be aware of its cash position, AP/AR, inventory situation and any incoming credit risk possibilities. After you have done your research, you might just find a nice turning around long term pick. You just need more work from the initial surface screening and look out for uptrend establishment.

So far HLEX, HTE(reached my target) PLXS are clearly in this territory. We will also know if OVTI is with them by May 31.and I will watch JRCC closely for the next two months to decide if I should call it a turnaround pick or not.

That is exactly why I said Bigger Fool Momentum Trading and Long term value investing can be done using a unified methodology, the only two differences are the degree of effort after the screening, and exit strategies.

Update 4:

No, they are not buy-holders

My system has 3 steps:

1. screening out those HCL

2. retail FA research to find out key issues.

3a. As a Trader: predict the DT/Swing momentums based on new developments on those key issues

3b. As an Investor: following the results in 1 and 2, and dig much much deeper than in 2 and 3a and wait until uptrend established to call a real long term pick out for holding recommendation.

You can see now this is the list of initial candidates after step 1.

Out of those 30-40, I will probably follow 8-10 most promising candidates in the next month for DT/Swing Trading opportunities (Bottom Momentum)

It will be good enough for me if I can find one or two for investing purpose later.

The Top Secret Of Highly Controversial Loser(HCL) (1): Value Investing Gurus and Followers

When world-class value investors such as Warren Buffett and Mohnish Pabrai are looking for their next Geico or Frontline(FRO), they screen the whole universe of public traded companies following certain criteria. From those candidates , they pick the businesses they fully understand and whose intrinsic value they have a thorough understanding of. They know they are getting a bargain because of market's irrational valuation on those distressed business, most of which are big losers on one year graph.

But, how come only a small number of people become world-class and make themselves a fortune doing so, while most other people following the same strategy have failed and get trapped in "value lemon"?

Despite the fact that they all claim they are following the same value- investing approach, why are the the results so drastically different ?

The answer to this question can be very complex, to name a few reasons: availability of information, analytical reasoning ability, knowledge of finance, accounting, tax and bankruptcy law and etc.

We have to admit that those gurus are true professionals and they do tremendous amount of research to have an upper hand on their odds. Besides, they are extremely smart and some are born with investing instincts. What can we say, not everyone is born equal.

Does that mean we retails don't stand a chance to do long-term investing following the proven approach?

The answer is "No". Everyone has his/her own edge in particular areas and can discover leads to successful picks. (I am going to discuss this in a future post)

To be continued.

以前的一些pick推荐

在买买提股版上不同时间段，不同价位的时候说到的
想走的是value investing buy－hold的路子

因为是在我学习阶段的pick，错误难免，放这里做个备份，
今后多看看免得自己忘了,说不定哪天有了我当时关注的焦点事件发生，还能去搞搞

winners:
HLEX @21.5
PLXS @17
HITK @10.5
HTE @21.5
ESV @49
PRS @11

losers:
MPEL @19
CBAK @4

break even:
ASPV @21