Saturday, May 5, 2007

野鸡FA指导博傻trading简易教程(-): 理论大纲

"Wild Turkey FA" trading guide Part 1.

Different from traditional FA, "Wild Turkey FA" (WTFA) approach

doesn't care a lot about factors such as "asset, liability, cash

flow, growth rate, P/E, P/S, and book value. Of course, they are

important and they are especially essential for traditional FA.

But since I am lazy, the only thing I care about is the "focus

issue" the bearish and bullish fight over. Yes. That's the only

thing I am concerned about for my picks.

We WTFA love the desperate retail longs in those "Highly

Controversial Loser" (HCL) stocks. Why? First of all,the holders

have the strongest incentives to look for reasons to holdHCL,

some of which could be very insightful too. That gives you the

edge to look under the surface.

Does it mean that you are going to purchase the stocks if you

think what they say makes sense? No. You need to find out why the

price keeps dropping despite all the nice things people say. I

want you to get all different opinions, then compare them with

the bearish views of analysts and short bashers.

The easiest shortcut for retail to do WTFA is to look for highly controversial stocks. Why? Because it's only with those picks that you have access to the largest amount of information.

When you have access to the opinions of cruious investors, bullish or bearish investors, MM is not going to have much information edge over you. In most cases, you don't even need insider information. All you need is common sense and be an opinion judge, and watch for new development.

What if you think the investors' opinions are right? does it mean you immediately buy? No. You just need to put this WTFAed stock into your watch list, and just watch.

The first strategy is to avoid catching the falling knife. Play with bottom momentum only. You can make a lot of money with these bottom momentum. It takes a couple of times a year to make you rich.

That's how I built my own watch list. Maybe I don't know the p/E
of every stock, but I surely know what kind of news is going to sink or boost the stock.

野鸡FA关键不是要看这个有多少asset, liability, cash flow, growth rate, P/E, P/S,book value这些当然重要,是学院派FA一定要看得

最最关键要看的是牛熊两派争论的焦点是什么, 因为我还是不够勤奋,所以我对大部分我watch的highly controversial票,只关心这个焦点

野鸡FA的好朋友就是这些desperate Retail Longs in those highly controversial loser(HCL) stocks

他们非常有incentive去找出自己hold这个loser的理由, 很多非常insightful,能挖出非常多你表面上很难看到的蛛丝马迹

那是不是这些人说好,你觉得有道理了,你就要马上买?不是,你还要先搞清楚为什么这个这些人说好的还一直跌. 兼听则明,再对比看看analysts and short bashers的bearish view

散户想做小公司的野鸡FA找Highly Controversial票是非常好的捷径,为什么? 只有这样的票你才能access到更多的information,当非常多好奇的投资者, 投机者看牛看熊的强烈意见和背后原因你都能access到,MM的information edge其实可以被抵消太多。 很多情况下,你并不需要insider的info,你只需要common sense, 当个opinion judge。and watch out for new development 谁说的对,能解释.

那你还是觉得这些investor的意见是对的,是不是说要马上买?也不是,你只需要把做了这个野鸡FA,发现是HCL的票放进你的watchlist,注意观察就好。操作策略的第一关键是不接飞刀,只作bottom momentum,而且这种momentum一定非常可观.够你赚的。

我自己的watchlist全是这样build出来的,我可能不知道每个票的P/E, 但是我一定知道下面可能的有什么样消息能大涨或大跌,和大致程度预期,如果你还记得我april 13早上 call MDTL<20,最后it涨上24才跳水,这个巨大的momentum就是你发财的机会,一年成功的作几次就好了

简单说几个票的焦点:

OVTI, fabless business到底搞不搞的过MU, Samsung这种自己有fab的business model,TrueFocus到底前景如何。所以ER看什么,不是看beat/miss,看的是市场份额的上升和成本的下降,margin回稳反升(进而重获优势),TrueFocus 大的design win就是焦点

ASPV, 这个business model到底行不行,所以焦点是看能不能再找到像Roche/CellCept这样的deal,一旦有了新的Deal,你就抄家伙上吧,即便已经涨了20%

HNR, government approval of new company,一样道理news一宣布,抄家伙上,即便已经涨了20%, 不过我已经fully loaded了,听完CC/ER,这个对我来说是sure money already, matter of time.

1 comment:

Ligang said...

Hey, this is great notebook!! I will ask my friends to come and study. ---LLNL