Sunday, May 6, 2007

JAMBA Juice (JMBA)

People from califonia seem really enjoy the health fruit drink this little company sells.
They are gradually expanding to cities outside CA

We have one newly opened not far from my apartment, they are always busy, and my wife likes it a lot.

It has everything Peter Lynch suggested to look for except one: the so-called "next xxxx" (I heard someone calling it the next SBUX). It is a fast growing business, has simple however nice nitch moat and attraction to younger generation.

The only problem is how can we evaluate its growth story. some numbers from the last 10K leave some doubts on this part and we are seeing its trading lower after that.

One of the confusion roots from the FY range changing, previously their FY ends at the end of June.

Here are some numbers to look at:
revenue: 2006 $253M
2005 $209M
2004 $172M
2003 $135M
2002 $121M

20-25% growth rate. nice right?

starting 2006 they are changing the FY range, and so far the two revenue numbers we know about are:

2006 June 28-Nov28 5 month $121,861,000

November 29, 2006 to January 9, 2007.
42day revenue: $23,115,000

I think the last 42 days revenue in the cold winter really made a lot of ppl doubt about the growth story. since if you extrapolate it to 90 days 3 month revenue, it is roughly 50M.

In order to get 300M number in the previously comparable FY range and a 20% growth rate from 2006
Jamba Juice just got 4 full month(March--June) to get about 128M revenue.

Sounds a bit tricky even for the warmer months like that.

If we look closely at the 42 days revenue number, what is happening is besides the cold winter effect, that was also Xmas holiday season plus end of school quarter/semester time. Who are the major buyers of Jamba Juice? Younger people with pocket money to spare and TIME to hang out with friends drinking juice while enjoying the nice outdoor sunshine, so for the end of semester, it might be just the best time to study more and not hanging out, and for the later Xmas holiday season, most of them will stay with their parents, and drink home made juice or juice Mom bought from place like Osco/Target. So my point is don't take that 42days too seriously, it is just the worst 42 days you can ever pick out for this business. Let's see what will happen in the future.

3 comments:

Hans said...

谢谢推荐,这个股票的确不错.属于我喜欢的板块.
它的现任CEO是以前BURGERKING CEO,非常懂得开连锁店,正符合这个公司的BIZ STRATEGY.希望能想HANS这类天然食品股票一样走高.

但自去年12月发生的ARIZONA分店细菌感染事件后就一直跌.现在也没走稳迹象.我会少量参与一下.再次感谢推荐

DRSchmidt said...

I went to Jamba today and also saw a line out of the other one in my area and it looks like store volume is good. We know from their historical data that their summer time revenue is 2x their dead of winter revenue. I think Jamba is an exciting growth story to watch.

Taikonaut said...

我也去了附近的jumba juice试了一试。我个人觉得挺难喝的。哈哈。不过估计女孩子喜欢,因为顾客中大部分是女的。

2006到2007半年的revenue只增长了14--15%,是不是跟整个房地产不景气有关,考虑到Jamba Juice的主力部队都在加州。

JMBA的price/sale大约是1.6,如果硬要和sbux比的话,算很便宜了。这个周末我也研究了一下sbux,觉得it好贵。