Thursday, May 10, 2007

My Expanded Highly Controversial Loser(HCL) Watchlist

Besides the ones I keep mentioning, those are additional candidates, not recommendation at all, just watchlist, I need to do more research to have opinion about any of them.

Update:
I think since there are many newbies watching my list I'd better delete all the biopharm play and filer the price/share >5

the updated list looks like:

VIMC
EICU
JUPM
IKAN
ALDA
STMP
CTHR
KONG
RMIX
IMAX(*)
RVSB
WPL
BRNC(*)
HRAY
OPMR
NSSC
NTE
EPEX
ASPM
CRED(**)
PTC
FNF
RAIL
LONG(*)
WTI
IFN
HW
MRVL(*)

Note: I assure you there will be a lot "value trap", falling knifes keep falling in those candidates, don't ever think about catching the knife, just wait for bottom momentum or news/ER driven momentum.

Update2:
Using the same approach, I picked out winners(for now) HLEX, OVTI, PLXS, HITK, HTE from a large pool of candidates, so the key is to check its recent price movement, if the last month performance is very good say 10-15%+, put it into your closely watched list and do more retail FA research to identify the key issues, that is the way to filter out most of the "value trap" and only pick out the ones which have good potential and get yourself prepared for bottom momentum driven by new developments on key issues.

Update3:
Besides bottom momentum day trading and short term swing, this is actually a nice approach to screen turning around business for long term holding. Still you need to wait until uptrend established (track it for more than 3 months from bottom), and read its 10K/10Q especially the balance sheet carefully to be aware of its cash position, AP/AR, inventory situation and any incoming credit risk possibilities. After you have done your research, you might just find a nice turning around long term pick. You just need more work from the initial surface screening and look out for uptrend establishment.

So far HLEX, HTE(reached my target) PLXS are clearly in this territory. We will also know if OVTI is with them by May 31.and I will watch JRCC closely for the next two months to decide if I should call it a turnaround pick or not.

That is exactly why I said Bigger Fool Momentum Trading and Long term value investing can be done using a unified methodology, the only two differences are the degree of effort after the screening, and exit strategies.

Update 4:

No, they are not buy-holders

My system has 3 steps:

1. screening out those HCL

2. retail FA research to find out key issues.

3a. As a Trader: predict the DT/Swing momentums based on new developments on those key issues

3b. As an Investor: following the results in 1 and 2, and dig much much deeper than in 2 and 3a and wait until uptrend established to call a real long term pick out for holding recommendation.

You can see now this is the list of initial candidates after step 1.

Out of those 30-40, I will probably follow 8-10 most promising candidates in the next month for DT/Swing Trading opportunities (Bottom Momentum)

It will be good enough for me if I can find one or two for investing purpose later.

4 comments:

bobby said...

The ones with *, ** are showing bottom momentum?

Robin said...

it shows how emergent for me to devote more time to research it.

Priority list.

Taikonaut said...

Those are not for buy-holders, right?

Robin said...

No, they are not buyholders

My system has 3 steps:

1. screening out those HCL

2. retail FA research to find out key issues.

3a. As a Trader: predict the DT/Swing momentums on incoming development on those key issues

3b. As an Investor: following the results in 1 and 2, and dig much much deeper than 2 and 3a and wait until uptrend established to call a real long term pick out for holding recommendation.

you can see that. this list is the initial start after step 1.

of those 30-40, I will probably follow 10 more in the next month for DT/Swing Trading opportunities (Bottom Momentum)

Then if I can find one or two for investing purpose that will be high enough for me