in this seeking alpha article
Right now ASPV is in the low $19s, which is approximately 10% above our cumulative discounted cash flow estimate for FY2007-2009; essentially, the market is pricing in almost no chance of Aspreva making another successful deal.
Sounds very familiar, right?
It is that simple, if you can see the value, someone else can see it, it is just a matter of time for the whole market to catch up. and the time delay really depends on how famous is the name, and how big is the uncertainty. Therefore I love underknown names with seemingly high uncertainty however actual low downside risk.
I think I should do more research on AMGN, since it is now clearly in the HCL wonderland.