Friday, May 18, 2007

Update on ASPV

in this seeking alpha article

Right now ASPV is in the low $19s, which is approximately 10% above our cumulative discounted cash flow estimate for FY2007-2009; essentially, the market is pricing in almost no chance of Aspreva making another successful deal.

Sounds very familiar, right?

It is that simple, if you can see the value, someone else can see it, it is just a matter of time for the whole market to catch up. and the time delay really depends on how famous is the name, and how big is the uncertainty. Therefore I love underknown names with seemingly high uncertainty however actual low downside risk.

I think I should do more research on AMGN, since it is now clearly in the HCL wonderland.


BAC said...

last month Morningstar upgraded AMGN to its 5-star stock pick. From then on, I put it into my watch list, and it goes down and down. I am looking forward to your insightful analysis for this stock, as I am really interested to this company - one of the best in biotechnology and Pharm ones. Sorry for my laziness. :)

BAC said...

Besides, I am a biomedical PhD. So if you have any need in interpreting any Pharm/Bio data, I'd like to. :)