Wednesday, May 9, 2007

My long-term holding portfolio UPDATE

OVTI: I have been spending considerable amount of time researching it. But I still don't have a very clear picture beyond year 2007 about the prospect of TrueFocus in the future, since very little is known about its possible competitors.

In today's presentation, Peter said there has been very strong customer interest. At this moment, I can only hope it will generate a similar level of revenue and excessive profit in 2008 and beyond.

If the future success of TrueFocus remains largely uncertain, why do I have confidence in holding it?

It is simply because I don't think OVTI needs TrueFocus to turn around. I have already explained the reasons here and there. Therefore, it is a high winning probability money for me to hold my leap calls here. When everyone else is assuming only TrueFocus can save OVTI from earning downtrend, I know it is not the case.

HNR: I have talked about it here and there, I am holding and waiting for the event to happen (just a matter of time if the management are not plain liars). Will sell out when it reaches my target of $20-22.

URGI: is a high growth stock at value price.It is the kind of pick Peter Lynch would like. I might be wrong, however I just like its story, balance sheet and operational trends. Will hold and wait for it to play out, and for the market eventually catch up with its value and growth.

USG: pure belief in Warren Buffett. If he is loading up truck in 46-47, I have no issue holding it here a bit below 50.

So, here we have value play(USG), asset play(HNR), turnaround and possible high-growth play(OVTI,URGI), event driven play(HNR) I think I will do well holding them in the long run.

Comments are welcomed.


Taikonaut said...

I feel USG is sth we can hold forever.
HNR: my company has restricted it for 3 weeks...wuwu...I am afraid I am gonna miss the entry point....
OVTI: I simply don't understand those tech stuffs.
URGI: my first impression on it is "margins too low".

Robin said...

Yes, I agree with you OVTI is so mysterious, too much effort has to be spend in order to have a seemingly clear picture. However the experience in my researching of OVTI really really boosted my analytical ability to find out the price movement and undergoing fundamental developments. It is so wonderful, that I can have some seemingly very high accuracy of price movement prediction beforehand.

Anyway I have no strong opinion about OVTI, I might be totally wrong about its future, however I do know something about its short term price movement.

This is why I am trader doing retail FA analysis, which seems odd, however it works quite nicely.

Ping said...

just want to say thank you and may I have your comment about XFML; ( I like it and and want to buy it if price is lower than 8). I did not finish all your articles, just knew your blogger today from MITBBS,haha.