HCL搏傻交易失败案例分析--CLWR

HCL: Highly Controversial Loser

我为什么喜欢HCL的pick,我已经讲了非常多了，就一点bottom momentum一来股价快速变化，赚钱快，当然方向反了，亏的也快，为什么momentum一来股价会快速变化，我也解释过了

来看个我自己操作失败的例子

April 17th: CLWR

一如既往，我早起继续找可能的runner

我发现CLWR是在news wire, more than 6 buy/overweight ratings initiated from analysts. which is already very bullish for an IPO rating initiation (for example MPEL got all neutral)，而且全是好话， all buy its growth story, MS's target price is 28 by year end.

then I checked the graph it is a loser so far, IPO price 25， if most ppl including all analysts think it is a buy, but it keep losing, it is then a HCL for sure.

what does those info tell you?

every long is losing money, no winner yet other than shorts.

great news at bottom end （with slight uptrend at yesterday close)

Long's thinking, bottom is in, with consensus buy recommendations, it will rocket, at least to 25 IPO price. has been waiting this for so long, will hold to turn profit, if those professionals think it is a buy, at this price, it is a bargain.

Short sellers has had enough by now, time to take profit and move on

then I bought and called.

没有料到的是开盘前一分钟，Bear Stern出了个peer performance, 我第一感觉是瑕不掩玉，马上开盘，就没细看这下可好，这个peer performance其实是sentiment巨大change的关键

后来到中午我看AP news才看到，这个表面上中性的rating其实很不好，target 19, 技术前景不明，扩张所需资金不够，etc，再加上出来的时间是最后一个，无疑非常吸引眼球

anyway, it start to perform ugly

这个时候一旦开盘不涨反跌，对long的打击就非常大，retail的普遍想法就是一定是你们analyst pump_dump, 这个票IPO以降，一直跌，肯定是有原因的，还好Bear Stern的告诉了我们，快跑

其实哪里是这样，long都在亏钱，Short也不会在这里火中取栗

sentiment一变，套牢盘出逃，局势马上就一边倒，

我最大的错误不是买了CLWR，而是这个时候反应慢了，照我的分析，这个时候就应该反手变空军，即便不卖share，上多几个April 17.5put就赚到了

结论就是我新的HCL bottom momentum博傻的方法正在成型，慢慢找感觉，经验少了点，双刃剑，威力巨大, 还是要随机应变，灵活变通才好，我现在玩得HCL DT pick都是volatility巨大的风口浪尖的票，一定要合理止损，正反手都要有准备才好玩。